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According to a survey, India's wholesale price index (WPI) probably
rose 9.62% in February from a year earlier. Forecast from 21 economists ranged
from 9.01% to 10.11%. The index had
risen 8.56% in January from a year
earlier.
Factors: There could be upward
revisions to the monthly food price index and the cost-driven inflationary
trend in manufacturing prices. If the data suggest that food prices are not
cooling off as expected, then the fuel price increase that took effect late
last month could push headline WPI inflation sharply higher in the months
ahead.
Impact: A faster rise in prices could
lead to a larger increase in policy
rates by the RBI at its April policy review. The RBI is widely expected to raise both its benchmark
lending and borrowing rates by at least 25 bps each to 5.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
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