Implied Volatility (IV) uses an option price to determine and calculate what the current market is talking about, the future volatility of the option’s underlying stock.
Implied volatility is one of the six essential factors used in options pricing models. However, IV can’t be calculated unless the remaining other five factors are already revealed.
Ultimately, Implied Volatility is essential because it acts as a sort of substitute measure for the real value of the option. Thus, when the implied volatility is higher, then the option premium will also be higher.
Trading volume is hazardous if there is volatility. Options trading volume is typically the best and highest for (ATM) at-the-money option contracts; thus, they are primarily used to calculate Implied Volatility.
Once the price of the ATM options has been decided, an options pricing model can be used to determine IV.
Implied volatility is generally known as a percentage consisting of standard deviations over a period of time.
Implied volatility is essential for all investors because it provides actionable insight into what the market is thinking about a price movement in stocks, whether it thinks large, moderate, or small movements in stocks.
However, Implied Volatility doesn’t predict the direction the movements of stocks will occur.
Implied volatility and historical volatility (HV) are both different. However, as the latter’s name suggests, historical volatility gives insight into the stock future movements based entirely on past movements.
While HV is considered helpful, several traders find IV more useful because it gives insights on past movements and all market expectations.
Any trader can use Implied Volatility to calculate a presumed range for an option throughout its entire life.
It points out the anticipated ups and downs for the option’s underlying stock and indicates good entry and exit points for all the traders.
Ultimately, IV will tell that whether the reward is worth the investment or whether the market agrees with a trader’s thinking and help him decide how this trade is risky.
Think of options as insurance which means when there is a severe risk in insuring an asset, the more expensive the coverage will be.
For example, an insurance company would make a higher premium to ensure because there is more risk in driving. The same thing applies to the stock market.
When the stock market becomes unpredictable due to natural disasters, world events, earnings announcements, or any other possible factor, the options become more expensive due to the higher risk and uncertainty about the future.
When trading options become unpredictable, this leads to an increase in implied volatility, referred to as IV expansion, because the option prices are likely to increase.
When the market scope becomes relatively stable, this is called IV contraction because here, it is a decrease in implied volatility and option prices.
Implied volatility is a fundamental prediction of how much market movement is expected regardless of the direction.
In other words, implied volatility reflects the desired range of possible results and uncertainty around how low or high an underlying asset might fall or rise.
High implied volatility tells that there is a higher chance of large price swings expected by traders. In contrast, low implied volatility means that that the market expects price movements to be relatively harmless.
The measurements of implied volatility can also help several traders measure market sentiment considering IV widely depicts the level of observed uncertainty or risk.
Implied volatility helps the traders to measure the sentiment of the stock market. It tells about the size of the movement an asset can generally take.
As we have already told, implied volatility does not give the indication and direction of the movement.
Several option writers make use of calculations that includes implied volatility to price options contracts. On the other hand, several investors will look for implied volatility when choosing the option of investment.
However, when there is high volatility during periods, they will invest in safer products or sectors.
Implied volatility is based solely on price and does not based on the underlying fundamentals of the market assets.
However, there may be chances where uncertain events or natural disasters may impact the implied volatility.
PROS of Implied Volatility
CONS of Implied Volatility
Implied volatility (IV) uses an option price to determine and calculate what the current market is talking about the future volatility of the option’s stock that is underlying.
The pros of implied volatility are:
1) It helps to set different option prices
2) Determines effective trading strategy
3) Clearly measures uncertainty and market sentiments.
When there is an increase in implied volatility, the price of options will gradually increase, assuming all other things remain stable. So when a trade has been placed and implied volatility increases, it is the best option for the owner and the worst choice for all sellers.
The cons of implied volatility are:
1) It is not based on solely prices and not based on market fundamentals
2) It impacts the implied volatility where uncertain events or natural disasters occur
3) Predicts the movement and not the direction
Implied volatility is essential for all investors because it provides actionable insight into what the market is thinking about a price movement in stocks, whether it thinks large, moderate, or small moves in stocks.
Several factors decide implied volatility, but above all, it’s an emotional aspect. IV is the short-term sentiment about the particularly given stock that drives the option prices.
It is seen that when there is a rise in stock price, there is an exponential gain in option prices, too, which is a clear result of the implied volatility of a specific stock.