The Equity Research Desk provides fundamental analysis of capital market-related entities to aid wise investment decisions. The analysis also includes IPO news and updates. An Initial Public Offering allows investors to explore the opportunities in various sectors. Nirmal Bang’s IPO watch helps market participants to stay abreast of all the latest developments in this segment.

Market Outlook Oct'21

12-Oct-21

Market Outlook October’21 Indian market is outperforming with wide margin Revival in Economy, Higher corporate earnings growth expectation and domestic money supporting outperformance World Economy is also moving towards normalisation and Pre-CoVID level But With much higher commodity prices Commodity prices has seen higher acceleration in recent past Leading to higher inflation. Fed seems more concern about inflation in recent past Monetary support to economy may start reverting faster than expected Higher commodity cost can have impact on margin of corporate and on demand as well. Valuation continue to run all time high and not leaving much scope for error We feel it’s time to be cautious going into the results

Monthly Report - October'21 Series

02-Oct-21

The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Can Fin Homes ? India Glycols Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? CIPLA ? IBREALEST Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? TATA MOTOR

Monthly Metaliks - September 2021

30-Sep-21

Performance of Indian metal companies has fallen in the past two months due to higher coking coal price and raw material price taking a dip in Aug-Sep’21. Domestic consumption of steel slumped to 7.8 mnt in Aug’21, a decline of 3% MoM as Auto players opted for production cut owing to shortage of semi-conductor. Exports were also lower and will continue to remain sideways in the short term as Indian mills do not have much order bookings for October shipments on account of European quotas being exhausted and South East Asia still in Covid throes. Indian primary mills, however, will be looking to increase prices in the coming months as the monsoon season which is relatively a weak season for steel producers has ended. Although, whether the prices will be able to sustain or not will depend on its demand. The impact of higher coking coal prices may not be visible in Q2 results due to higher inventories and will only be seen from Q3 onwards. With China focusing more on its domestic market due to production curbs, export disincentives and a strict inspections regime, we believe such measures will help to boost Indian steel exports in the medium-to-long term. Aluminium soared to a 13-year high of $3,000 per tonne in Sep’21 in London Metal Exchange (LME) on supply concerns. The price surge was triggered by the political turmoil in Guinea, a major producer of bauxite that goes into the making of aluminium, and a cut in production by China, the largest aluminium producer, to control carbon emission from mines. Though aluminium prices have fallen to about $2,850 per tonne, they remain over 60% higher than a year ago. We believe the outlook is positive for aluminium producers as the prices will sustain given the demand for aluminium is increasing globally.

Vaibhav Global Q1FY22 Result Update

02-Sep-21

Vaibhav Global Ltd (VGL) started the new fiscal year on strong note. Sales grew by 24% yoy to Rs 682 cr, despite high base of last year due to covid related high traction. Gross margins came at 65% vs 64.3%/61.2% in Q1FY21/Q4FY21. It is also highest in last 4-5 yrs. EBITDA margins improved to 13.4% vs 13.4%/11.8% in Q1/Q4. Current quarter includes the initial phase launch expenses of Gemrnay business. Excluding this the EBITDA grew by 34% vs reported growth of 24%. The company had forayed into Germany with ~2mn investment during Q4FY21. VGL is confident of breaking even in Germany within three years of roll out, given Germany is Europe’s largest home shopping market with 38 mn TV at homes. In the first year i.e. FY22, Germany is expected to do loss of $3-5 mn. Since the advent of COVID, the company has witnessed accelerated digital adoption. As a result, VGL has gained traction on TV Home shopping, e-commerce and several emerging platforms For FY22, the management has maintained its guidance of 16-18% retail volume growth. Valuations and Recommendation Our last quarter’s call of booking partial profits has worked well. The stock has corrected since then despite broader markets booming. However, as the demand outlook remains positive we believe investors can re-enter at current price. Though the company has narrowed the valuation gap with other FMCG players, we believe there is still scope for further upmove. We recommend investors to re-enter at current levels.

Monthly Report - September'21 Series

28-Aug-21

The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Fiem Industries Ltd ? United Spirits Ltd Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? NALCO ? HDFCAMC Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? BHARTIARTL

Market Outlook Aug'21

25-Aug-21

Market Outlook August’21 Small cap shares saw some meaningful correction this time But correction seems to be uneven and not across the board Run up in small cap was driven by weaker hands like HNI and Retail And also Small cap saw good run up and outperformed Nifty substantially. Even after the recent correction Small Cap index is out performing Nifty and leave some more scope for further correction On the other hand, month-to-date Nifty is outperforming most of the larger market Earnings are expected to show strong growth in FY22 and FY23 Recent Shift of IT fund from China/ Hong Kong to India supported Indian market Supply chain disruption is still continuing but expected to ease with increasing vaccination FED may give indication to start tapering but US corporate results are very strong Recent correction in small cap stock is given some opportunity in quality small cap stocks which may be accumulated on decline Valuation of Nifty still high Overall Nifty outlook remain more of a range bound in near term.

Monthly Report - August'21 Series

31-Jul-21

The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Globus Spirits ? SBI Cards & Payment Services Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? LAURUSLABS ? INSECTICIDE Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? DEEPAKNTR

Market Outlook - July 2021

13-Jul-21

Market Outlook July’21 Even after lockdown result are likely to show 2 years CAGR growth driven by Metal and Export related sector Nifty earning are expected to grow by 40% in FY22 and further by 17% in FY23 leading to 12% CAGR in last 5 years, inline with long term average US earnings are also likely to be strong driven by unlocking and pent-up Increasing COVID cases continue to disrupt supply chain Disruption in Q1 will lead to strong Q2 in India 20 lakh addition of new account p.m. can bring Rs.10,000cr fresh money FII are cautious but domestic money is supporting the market Fed is focus on growth Valuation are multi-year high Near term weakness in result can impact small cap stocks Nifty may remain range bound but stock specific run can continue

Monthly Report - July'21 Series

26-Jun-21

The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? GMM Pfaudler ? Tata Consultancy Services Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? DEEPAKNTR ? INDIAGLYCO Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? SBIN

Monthly Report - June'21 Series

29-May-21

The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? CSB Bank ? Lincoln Pharma Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? CANBK ? TATACONSUM Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? ONGC

Vaibhav Global Ltd Q4FY21 Result Update

27-May-21

Ended FY21 with a Bang, Gearing Up for Future Vaibhav Global Ltd (VGL) reported robust sales growth of 33.7% at Rs 666 cr for Q4, led by retail business. For full year, the company reported sales growth of 28% at Rs 2540 cr, with volume growth of 30%, one of the highest in the history of the company. EBITDA margins improved to 14.6% for FY21 from 13.2% in FY20 backed by strong volumes. For Q4, margins were slightly better than last year at 11.8% vs 11.3%. Q4 is seasonally soft quarter w.r.t. margins, hence it is not prudent to compare margins sequentially. Gross margin has remained largerly stable even though the product mix continued to diversify the higher contribution from non-jewelry segments, which was 31% vs 22% in FY20. During the quarter, the company has forayed into Germany with ~2mn investment. VGL is confident of breaking even in Germany within three years of roll out, given it the country has large shopping market with 38 mn TV at homes. In the first year i.e. FY22, Germany is expected to do loss of $3-5 mn. For FY22, the management has guided for 16-18% retail volume growth, which doesn’t include any contribution of Germany. Valuations and Recommendation The stock has surged sharply during last 3-4 months continuing its outperformance against the broader indices on the back of strong and consistent financial performance. Also, as the market has understood the business model of the company, it is being compared with other FMCG hence the PE has been rerated, in similar lines of our argument. We are projecting 18.5%/24.2% CAGR in sales/EBITDA between FY21-FY23E. The stock is currently trading at 31.2x on our FY23E earnings. Considering the sharp surge, we recommend investors to partial book profits and continue to hold remaining shares, as the long term outlook is positive.

Monthly Report - May'21 Series

01-May-21

The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? ICICI Bank ? S.H. Kelkar Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? GLAND ? NATIONALUM Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? SUNPHARMA

Market Outlook - April 2021

13-Apr-21

Market Outlook April’21 Q4 results are likely to show substantial growth on account of lower base, high commodity prices and continuation of demand growth of Q3 into Q4 QoQ may see some moderation in EBITDA margin though absolute EBITDA to increase by 8% Management commentary for near term will be cautious due to second wave. May see some downgrades by analysts for FY22 EPS Small cap is at all time high but near term cautious outlook can have higher impact on price. In small cap market see near term results Valuation running at all-time high, leaving little scope for rerating China has recovered and is changing the track to deleveraging Whereas US’s full recovery may still be away by 1-2 quarters FII flow has slowed down and may remain lower in near term May see some more correction in Near term however same can be used to buy quality stocks for long term.

Monthly Metalliks- Febraury/March 2021

03-Apr-21

• Chinese steel (HRC) export price sustain upward trajectory in March 2021 to ~US$ 735/tonne • China Crude steel output down by 10% on monthly premises to 83mn tonne in Feb’21 owing to curtailed production to control air pollution and prevent excess steel output and, However the production in Jan-feb21 improved by 13% yoy due to increasing domestic demand as Chinese infrastructure projects and Real estate market surged after being hit by COVID-19. • India crude steel production is down by 11.7% and 3.2% on MoM and YoY basis respectively to 9.1mnt owing to lesser number of days in Feb. Domestic consumption reduced by 3% on MoM basis to 9.12mnt. • Domestic steel players continue to increase the steel prices given the pick-up in domestic demand and firm trend in international prices. HRC prices increased by 42% yoy to Rs 54,516/tonne and Rebar price increased by 22% yoy to Rs49,375/t in Mar 2021.

Monthly Report - Apr'21 Series

27-Mar-21

The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Mayur Uniquoters ? Sanghi Industries Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? Berger Paint ? Nocil Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? ONGC

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