The Equity Research Desk provides fundamental analysis of capital market-related entities to aid wise investment decisions. The analysis also includes IPO news and updates. An Initial Public Offering allows investors to explore the opportunities in various sectors. Nirmal Bang’s IPO watch helps market participants to stay abreast of all the latest developments in this segment.

Monthly Report - Mar'21 Series

27-Feb-21

We at Nirmal Bang Retail Research Desk are pleased to provide you with our Monthly Report followed after every F&O expiry. The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Amber Enterprises ? Divis Laboratories Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? MINDACORP ? NELCO Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? COALINDIA

Vaibhav Global Ltd Q3FY21 Result Update

23-Feb-21

Valuations and Recommendation The stock continued its outperformance against the broader indices backed by its strong and consistent financial performance. We remain positive on the future prospects of the company. We are projecting 24%/37% CAGR in sales/EBITDA between FY20-FY23E, led by improvement in EBITDA margins to 16.5% in FY23E from 13.2% in FY20. We are introducing FY23E projections and shifting our target multiple FY23E. The stock is currently trading at 18.5x on our FY23E earnings. Though the stock has achieved all our earlier targets, we remain upbeat on the near to medium term prospects and recommend HOLD on the stock with a target price of Rs 3593 (23x FY23E).

Union Budget FY21-22

02-Feb-21

Budget Summary FM has provided timely stimulus to economy through this budget This support shall continue in coming year as well No negative in the budget itself acted as a positive Q3 results are seeing growth YoY and have reached higher than pre COVID levels Stimulus will help revive growth Benefit of this budget will be indirect; No major direct up-gradation of earnings due to budget As such implementation will be the key Valuation has gone through the roof which will cap the upside in near term Budget is long term positive

Monthly Report -Feb' 21 Series

30-Jan-21

We at Nirmal Bang Retail Research Desk are pleased to provide you with our Monthly Report followed after every F&O expiry. The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Infosys ? Repco Home Finance Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? Jyothy Labs ? V-Guard Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? SAIL

Monthly Report - Jan'21 Series

02-Jan-21

We saw Nifty moving up by over 7% in December month driven by optimism on account of additional stimulus in US and Europe, positive news on vaccine approval and increasing commodity prices. Real Estate, Metal and IT sector outperformed whereas Auto, Power and Oil & Gas underperformed The expectation of stimulus by developed nations and a depreciating dollar have further moved money into emerging markets. We saw emerging markets like Brazil, Russia and South Africa along with India outperform developed nations which were impacted by increasing COVID cases and further lockdowns. Going forward the expectation of better results for Q3FY21 is driven by further opening up of economy along with festival season leading to an increase in demand and an increase in commodity prices. Various companies in sectors like IT, Metal, Cement, Ceramic, select Auto, various basic chemical, Textile, Appliances are likely to report better results whereas the larger sector viz Financial will recognize NPAs post moratorium. Sectors like Travel and Hospitality are still struggling whereas Retail is coming back. Some companies will also see margin pressure on account of increasing commodity prices. In the later half of Jan the expectation of Budget will also get built-up and can support the market. Sentiment related to the start of administration of vaccine in India to frontline workers can also support the market. Although, one needs to be watchful of - inflow of funds from FIIs where the pace has slowed down in recent past; and the excessive valuation of the market. We expect sentiment to remain positive in Jan Month and Market may move towards 14500.

Monthly metallix- Sector Update

01-Jan-21

GLOBAL METAL DYNAMIC Ferrous • Chinese steel (HRC) export price sustain upward trajectory in December 2020 to ~US$665/tonne. (up by 20% mom),However the prices are down 1.1% on FY20YTD (April-Dec20) basis. • China Crude steel output down on monthly premises to 87.7mn tonne in Nov’20 owing to curtailed production amidst winter restriction, the production for YTD (April-Nov 2020) stood at 730 mn tonnes– up 7.2% YoY. • China recorded iron ore production at 75.2mnt in Nov'20,down by 4% MoM, The output for FY20 (April-Nov) recorded ~1.5% rise to 604mnt. The output picked up amid high Chinese demand. • Iron ore prices (CFR China 63% Fe) increased by 23% on mom basis to US$153/tonne on increasing buying interest among steel players and supply tightness • Australian coking coal prices remained unchanged at USD 100/tonne as most of the buyers have slowed down their procurement activities ahead of upcoming new year-end holidays • India crude steel production up by 2% on mom basis to 9.2mnt.. Robust demand in the domestic market from the auto and consumer durable sectors led to an increase in production. The mills continued to operate at around 89% of their production capacity during the month. • Domestic steel players continue to increase the steel prices given the pick-up in domestic demand and firm trend in international prices. HRC prices increased by 13% to Rs 52,500/tonne and Rebar price increased by 17% to Rs51,100/t in Dec 2020. • Domestic iron ore prices in India remain supported on the back of tight availability (slower ramp up of mines in Odisha), Prices of iron ore lumps as well as fines increased to Rs. 5200/tonne & Rs. 4610/tonne during the month of Dec’20 Non-ferrous • Key metals Aluminium/zinc/copper and lead witnessed an improvement of 4.7%/5.2%/9.9% and 5.1% mom respectively to US$2,036/t, USD2,822/t. USD7,786/t and USD2,031/t. • The surge in base metals has been powered by expectations that the coronavirus vaccine deployment next year will ease global economic sufferings. Chinese rapid economic rebound and weak dollar has also supported the uptick in base metal prices

Metal monthly-Metallix-Oct/Nov 20

01-Dec-20

GLOBAL METAL DYNAMICS Ferrous • Chinese steel (HRC) export price sustain upward trajectory in November 2020 to ~US$ 546/tonne. (up by 5.6% mom),However the prices are down 5.6% on FY20YTD (April-Nov’20) basis. • China Crude steel output down marginally on monthly premises to 92.2mn tonne in Oct’20 owing to curtailed production and winter restriction, the production for YTD (April-Oct 2020) stood at 642 mn tonnes– up 7.1% YoY. • China recorded iron ore production at 78.42 mnt in Oct'20, up by 6.7% MoM, The output for FY20 (April-Oct) recorded ~2.5% rise to 529mnt. The output picked up amid high Chinese demand. • Iron ore prices (CFR China 63% Fe) increased by 3.2% on mom basis to US$123/tonne on increasing buying interest among steel players. • Australian coking coal (HCC Premium) fell by 24.2% MoM to $90/tonne as demand sentiments weakened amid growing panic over the impact of possible coal import restrictions in china, the prices are down by 40% on FY20YTD basis. • India crude steel production up by 6.3% on mom basis to 9.06mnt on improved capacity utilization and pick up in downstream demand from construction, auto & white goods sector, The production for YTD (April-October 2020) stood at 49mnt down by 23% YoY. • Domestic steel players continue to increase the steel prices given the pick-up in domestic demand and firm trend in international prices. HRC prices increased by 7.4% to Rs 46,000/tonne amd Rebar price increased by 9.5% to Rs42,488/t in Nov 2020. • Domestic iron ore prices in India remain supported on the back of tight availability (slower ramp up of mines in Odisha), Prices of iron ore lumps as well as fines increased to Rs. 4,000/tonne & Rs. 3,610/tonne during the month of Nov’20 Non-ferrous • Key metals Aluminium/zinc/copper and lead witnessed an improvement of 6.6%/9%/5% and 7% mom respectively to US$1940/t, USD2675/t. USD7047/t and USD1921/t. • The surge in base metals has been powered by expectations that the coronavirus vaccine deployment next year will ease global economic sufferings. Chinese rapid economic rebound and weak dollar has also supported the uptick in base metal prices Metal Pick • SAIL- We expect a twin trigger of volume improvement and deleveraging, SAIL is poised for a structural improvement in operating performance. With increasing steel prices and lower coking coal price we expect SAIL to report an EBITDA/T of Rs8000/t plus in Q3FY21. We recommend buy for sail with a target price of Rs 60/share.

Monthly Report - Dec'20 Series

28-Nov-20

We at Nirmal Bang Retail Research Desk are pleased to provide you with our Monthly Report followed after every F&O expiry. The objective of the report is to provide you insights into Equity markets, both from the Fundamental and Technical perspectives along with the stock picks for short to medium term. The key contents of the report are as follows: Market Outlook Fundamental Stocks ? Cholamandalam Investment & Finance ? Laurus Labs Technical Outlook Technical Stocks ? HEROMOTOCO ? MANAPPURAM Derivatives Outlook Derivatives Strategies ? NIFTY ? TATAPOWER

AU Small Finance Bank Ltd - Initiating Coverage

18-Nov-20

Valuation and Recommendation: With a long run-way for growth and visible ROE stabilization at ~18% + levels in the medium term on the back of - strong AUM CAGR of 30% over FY21-25E and lower credit costs, we believe AU’s valuations will gravitate towards that of leading banks and NBFCs demonstrating similar ROE, growth and asset quality profile. We value AU at PE/G of 1x at 30x Sep 2022 EPS of ~Rs. 37 at Rs. 1,100. At our target price of Rs. 1,100, AU would trade at an implied P/BV of 5.0x Sep 2022.

Vaibhav Global Q2FY21 Result Update

17-Nov-20

Valuations and Recommendations The stock has outperformed the broader indices backed by its strong and consistent financial performance. Given the resilience shown by the company in current unprecedentent times, we remain positive on the future prospects of the company for coming period. We are projecting 23% CAGR in sales between FY20-FY22E however expects EBITDA to grow faster at 31% during the same period, led by improvement in EBITDA margins to 15% in FY22E from 13.2% in FY20. The stock is currently trading at 20.7x on our FY22E earnings, which is still inexpensive as compared to other FMCG players.

Investment Picks for Diwali 2020

09-Nov-20

Investment Picks for Diwali 2020

Monthly Report - Nov'20 Series

02-Nov-20

The COVID cases at world level continue to hit new high along with US. Various European countries are seeing a second wave which is much higher than the first wave and countries like Germany, France, Italy and UK have already announced lockdowns. Though lock downs are announced with some form of support by government, it will still negatively impact confidence and spending of people. Currently. there are 10 vaccines in Phase 3 trials and we may hear positive news from few of them in next 1-3 months. Though, the implementation process of the vaccine may be longer but it will create positive sentiment among people. We had seen economies bouncing back in different parts of world with the support of stimulus by Governments and Central banks but to come back on sturdy growth path, we need to have resolution of problem which is still in process. We expect Market in November series would be volatile and events like this could create excessive volatility. Considering increasing lockdowns in some parts of the world and higher valuation in Indian market, the chances of decline in the market have increased. We believe it is difficult to give any range in such type of market conditions and advise to be cautious at current point of time.

Metallix- October 2020

31-Oct-20

GLOBAL METAL DYNAMICS Ferrous • Chinese steel (HRC) export price sustain upward trajectory in September 2020 to ~US$ 517/tonne. (up by 0.4% mom),However the prices are down 8.8% on FY20YTD (April-Oct’20) basis. • Chinese crude steel production declined by 2.4%mom to 92.6mnt in September’20, the production for YTD (April-Sep 2020) stood at 550 mn tonnes– up 12% YoY. The production surge coupled with rising demand from housing and infrastructure activity supported by raft of economic stimulus measures provided by the Chinese government led to an improvement in Chinese steel output on yearly basis. • China recorded iron ore production at 73.4 mnt in Sep'20, down 4.5% MoM, The output for FY20 (April-Sep) recorded ~3% rise to 450mnt. The output on YTD basis picked up amid high Chinese demand. • Iron ore prices (CFR China 63% Fe) plunged by 3% on mom basis to US$120/tonne as buying interest weakend among steel players. • Australian coking coal (HCC Premium) fell by 7% MoM to $119/tonne as demand sentiments weakened amid growing panic over the impact of possible coal import restrictions in china, the prices are down by 40% on FY20YTD basis. • India crude steel production up by 2.6% on mom basis to 8.6mnt on improved capacity utilization and pick up in downstream demand from construction, auto & white goods sector, however the production is down by 3.8% on yearly premises The production for YTD (April-September 2020) stood at 39mnt down by 27% YoY. • Domestic steel players continue to increase the steel prices given the pick-up in domestic demand and firm trend in international prices. HRC prices increased by 3.9% to Rs 42,750/tonne whereas Rebar price remained stable at Rs38,800/t in October 2020. • Domestic iron ore prices in India remain supported on the back of tight availability (slower ramp up of mines in Odisha), Prices of iron ore lumps as well as fines increased to Rs. 3450/tonne & Rs. 3160/tonne during the month of October’20 Non-ferrous • Key metals Aluminium witnessed an improvement of 2.2%mom to US$1820/Tonne, whereas Zinc and Lead prices declined by 1% and 6% on monthly premises to US$2445/tonne and US$1791/tonne respectively. Copper price remained flat on monthly basis to US$ 6713/Tonne. • The inventories of Aluminium and Zinc declined by 5% and 0.6% mom to 1437mnt and 218mnt respectively. Global steel demand Outlook: • The Global steel demand is expected to contract in CY20 by 2.4% to 1750mnt due to outbreak of COVID-19, whereas it is expected to show a recovery of 4% in CY21 as situation normalizes. • India, despite implementing stringent lockdown measures has suffered the most, India is expected to see the deepest decline in decades, the production is expected to see a decline of 12% and consumption to contract by 17% in FY21, however rebound is expected in FY22 supported by rural consumption and government investment in infrastructure

Market Outlook Oct’20

13-Oct-20

Saw correction in September month after a 5 long months Correction remain short lived on account of expectation of additional stimulus Liquidity will keep on supporting market Ultimate goal of full revival of economy in US is still away Covid cases are still at higher level and Europe is seeing second wave Vaccine is expected in near term but implementation can take time India has seen recovery ahead of expectation despite higher Covid cases Q2 may see Sales decline of 6% and Q3 likely to be flattish yoy Recovery more in favour of bigger players Valuation at 10 Year High Market likely to be range bound in near term Need to be careful in small cap in near term

IndiGrid InvIT Fund Ltd. - Stock Idea

01-Oct-20

Opportunity for healthy risk adjusted returns in a stable business ? India's first infrastructure investment trust in the power sector, IndiGrid provides investors with an opportunity to invest directly in operating power transmission assets characterized by steady cash flows due to absence of traffic risks / operating risks, minimal counter party risk and lower operating expenses. ? IndiGrid will be the beneficiary of rise in demand for transmission capacity due to rising share of renewable energy, regional power demand-supply mismatch and upgradation of existing transmission lines. ? IndiGrid plans to become a Rs. 30,000 Cr AUM trust over next two years with aggressive plans to acquire assets (from Rs. 13,600 Cr AUM today). ? Strong business fundamentals and a 530 bps spread between 10 year G-secs (6.0%) and IndiGrid (11.3%; AAA rated) is attractive. Investment Rationale • Steady cash flow generating business model with minimal counter-party risk • KKR & GIC reinforce IndiGrid platform’s credibility; KKR’s induction as co-sponsor to improve robustness of corporate governance • Strong focus on growth via acquisitions • No negative impact of Covid-19 Attractive risk-adjusted returns Investor return in IndiGrid which is a quasi-equity instrument will be a combination of quarterly dividend and the unit’s price appreciation. The IndiGrid’s beta against NSE 500 is at just 0.1 as against 0.9 for both, the Power & Utilities Index and the Infra Index. We are confident of IndiGrid’s business model, which is backed by predictable cash flows and offers growth visibility. IndiGrid InvIT is AAA rated and offers 11.3% IRR, trading at a spread of ~530 bps to the 10 year G-sec (6.0%). In our view, such a spread is attractive given the high degree of certainty of cash flows & distribution per unit going forward.

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